Worst affected yielders like south african rand

The worst affected currency group has been the high yielders

The worst affected currency group has been the high yielders like the Australian dollar and South African Rand. These are the currencies that benefitted most over recent months as investors sought risk and higher returns. As those positions are unwound, these same currencies have been hard hit, with the Aussie dollar falling by 12% against the US dollar in May.

Sterling/Euro, and all this volatility is giving us very little in the way of market direction. There was little on the data front to help. UK retail sales rose 0.3% in April, but markets barely noticed. Minutes from the latest Bank of England meeting confirmed the view that interest rates will stay low for while yet. The focus for Sterling now is the emergency budget to be announced in June. Investors are looking for information on how bad the deficit is, and what measures will be taken to address it. Until we have a clear fiscal tightening plan in place, sterling will struggle.

Meanwhile, the Euro has failed to take comfort from the €750bn stabilisation package backed by EU countries, the EU and the IMF. There is open talk of whether any countries will exit the single currency, and what steps would need to be taken in order to achieve an exit. A speech by German chancellor Angela Merkel announced a ban on naked short selling of certain securities, but her acknowledgement of the seriousness of the Euro’s crisis sent markets nose diving around the world. The Down Jones and FTSE are approaching the lows seen in early May.

Sterling is in a similar boat to the Euro, at least until the budget is announced. The Euro crisis is also a Sterling crisis, because Europe is the UK’s largest trading partner, and currency instability in the euro zone will also damage the UK economy. Arch Euro sceptics in Downing street – while taking some pleasure in pointing out that their scepticism has been largely vindicated in recent weeks - are first to acknowledge this. In the short term the Sterling/Euro rate will remain volatile, but unlikely to move far beyond the four cent range between 1.14 - 1.18 that has been dominating over the last few weeks. A move below 1.14 would be a cause for concern

Tags:  australian dollar, currencies, south african rand